Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 1.980358 2.094347 2.213974 2.349318 2.498730 2.659252 2.845583
2025-08-17 1.795770 1.951581 2.122723 2.326204 2.563623 2.834540 3.171001
2025-08-24 1.672671 1.851064 2.053140 2.301870 2.603932 2.964577 3.436910
2025-08-31 1.593308 1.788997 2.016257 2.304132 2.665840 3.115205 3.732917
2025-09-07 1.535116 1.745081 1.994204 2.317819 2.737058 3.277348 4.055197
2025-09-14 1.464402 1.680332 1.940753 2.285719 2.743554 3.351369 4.260884
2025-09-21 1.401940 1.621527 1.890100 2.251955 2.742574 3.411581 4.449094
2025-09-28 1.343044 1.563821 1.837061 2.210575 2.726449 3.446672 4.600226
2025-10-05 1.320815 1.550840 1.839791 2.242130 2.811240 3.630836 5.002098
2025-10-12 1.301912 1.540752 1.845045 2.276334 2.900816 3.828518 5.452162
2025-10-19 1.281489 1.527434 1.844827 2.302093 2.978812 4.014368 5.909039
2025-10-26 1.247515 1.494756 1.816865 2.286620 2.993412 4.099990 6.197095
2025-11-02 1.215067 1.463391 1.789950 2.272007 3.009472 4.191358 6.515318
2025-11-09 1.182205 1.430303 1.759287 2.250219 3.012646 4.261037 6.802522
2025-11-16 1.151105 1.398472 1.728988 2.227172 3.011785 4.322839 7.083200
2025-11-23 1.130287 1.379834 1.716239 2.229315 3.050983 4.458049 7.546830
2025-11-30 1.114210 1.367049 1.711061 2.242282 3.108247 4.631065 8.133353
2025-12-07 1.085593 1.336017 1.678678 2.211867 3.090692 4.662249 8.387473
2025-12-14 1.057984 1.305626 1.646214 2.179860 3.068351 4.681975 8.617341
2025-12-21 1.029548 1.273360 1.610069 2.140611 3.031252 4.669588 8.762014
2025-12-28 1.022836 1.271354 1.617756 2.170543 3.116125 4.907658 9.644619
2026-01-04 1.017115 1.270478 1.626900 2.202972 3.207390 5.169648 10.687119
2026-01-11 1.009381 1.266437 1.631091 2.227383 3.285639 5.413934 11.772792